Sunday, September 14, 2003

178238

Pepsi's "Play for a Billion" sweepstakes TV program went off without a hitch Sunday night, and landed a churchgoing West Virginian into the spotlight at the end with a million dollar check in his pocket.

In case you didn't see the show, here's a quick summary:

  • A six digit number was randomly created at the beginning of the show, that number was 178238
  • Almost one thousand people in the audience were chosen from millions across the country, all drawn together by magical words underneath the caps of Pepsi products they had purchased
  • Each was randomly assigned their own six digit number prior to the TV show, and the closer they were to the aforementioned "special" number, the better their odds at winning a million dollars
  • Ten people whose personal number was closest to the jackpot number were brought up on stage
  • One by one, each person was eliminated who was the farthest away from the jackpot number of the people remaining, unless ofcourse they chose to take a briefcase full of cash prior to being kicked off
  • If someone in the audience had an exact match to the jackpot number, they'd automatically win a billion dollars

What I find most interesting is that of these ten people, six of them chose to take money rather than face being eliminated. However, when the magic number was revealed, the closest of the remaining people still on stage took the money home.

Now what if someone took the briefcase of money over the possibility of being eliminated, and at the end it was revealed that they would have been the winner had they not already left?

Astonishingly, the person who chose to NEVER take the money, and was NEVER eliminated, ended up being the winner anyway.

Some quick math will provide you with some interesting odds for the show ending the way it did:

One of the final two left on stage was actually the winner: 14.2%
Someone in the audience actually won a billion dollars: 1/531,441 (thanks to Google calculator)

Now if we assume that out of everyone in the audience — the ones chosen for the final ten had at least two digits correct, the odds for one of them winning a billion increase to 1/6,561, with three digits being correct: 1/729.

Now that's not too bad ;)